Running Hot and Cold

On the Theo Spark blog, Alan Caruba offers us the prospect of a Mini Ice Age.

So far I am unconvinced that chilly temperatures in March on the Plateau are anything other than weather.  The problem with models and the predictions thereof is that the modeler can only plug in so many parameters -- even if all known factors are included, there are, to riff off Rumsfeld, an unknown number of unknowns remaining.

The weatherman was on last night pointing to a mass of cold air being held up in Canada.  The Border Patrol is still unsure about its passport.  This has not been "drained off", as the man explained, so it is likely that we will continue getting hit with the kitchen sink -- or at least the refrigerator door until some time in April.  Also, there is a big snow-pack up north.  This works somewhat like ice in your cooler.  We normally don't think about that, but not only does this cool the air at the surface, a large area of snow-covered ground is absorbing a lot less solar radiation and reflecting a lot more off into space, causing, perhaps, lunar warming.  If the Moon bursts into flames some night, we'll know why.

I'm a global warming/climate change/mini ice age skeptic.  So far I observe that the northern hemisphere warms in the summer and cools in the winter.  There are variations in this. I am not sure why, and until the local weatherman can beat the Old Farmers' Almanac on a regular basis, I'm pretty sure Science! doesn't know why either.   

Global cooling and a mini-Ice Age would be a lot more disastrous, especially in the short-term, than a Celsius degree increase in the average temperature.  Anyone for famine, war, and political upheaval?  Caruba suggests that is what happened last time.  I'm hardly ready to accept that "[w]orld cooling is locked in ...", as one of the experts quoted by Caruba insists.  But if some the witchdoctors pushing their bogus CO2 models for climate change suffer frostbite, I would think it poetic justice.     

Meanwhile, weather in general is something the prudent should always factor in when making preparations.  Some seasons are not going to be as good as others.  Diversification is your friend in these cases.  During the 1930s, in the face of widespread summer drought here on the Plateau that thwarted all efforts to raise wheat, corn or oats, it still rained enough along toward fall that the hillbillies could raise a crop of turnips (remember that scene from Gone with the Wind?).  Turnips fed both man and beast through the winter.  One wag returned from a doctor's visit to report that his medical issues were a result of his blood being 90% turnip juice. 

Planning to improvise, as someone said, is not a plan, but being flexible and willing to innovate and adapt is a key to human survival and prosperity.