Wednesday, June 29, 2016


Quinnipac's new poll shows Trump trailing within the survey's margin of error -- a statistical tie.

Right now, polls are pretty unreliable.  After the 4th, things may solidify a little.  The stupid conventions will see-saw the lead.  Clinton may pick Warren, which will help her.  The Benghazi non-report lets her off the hook.  The emails are still out there.

I expect Clinton to be the next president.  It is the most probable outcome.

I expect disruptions at both conventions.

I expect lower than normal turn-out for a presidential election.  The level of enthusiasm is not high.

I would prefer the Senate and House remain under Republican control -- despite the fact the GOP has done nothing positive with their majorities.  I know the Senate is at risk, but I expect them to hold on to a bare majority, with the loss of three seats.

Clinton is a horrible candidate.  Sure, there are a few idiots, union bosses, and bureaucrats that are excited to vote for her, but she needs a potent V-P pick to break 50%.

Trump is going to bobble. He is going to have to start raising and spending money to be competitive.  I'm not sure he can do it.  When he is on, he is right on, but he is off a lot and the media is now his sworn enemy.  They are going to play up every fumbled statement, every glitch, and anything that might be perceived as a mistake.

Trump runs on being inevitable.  The leftist media -- a lot of so-called conservatives are playing up his weakness against Clinton.  The Beltway Cabal would rather have Clinton regardless of the letter that follows their name.  I just doubt that, with the weight of the establishment against him, Trump has the energy to pull it off.   

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