Russian Defense Ministry sources told the semiofficial news agency Interfax that action plans are being finalized to react to an armed conflict involving Iran and its nuclear program. ...
... The Russian spearhead may be ordered to strike south to prevent the presumed deployment of US bases in Transcaucasia, to link up with the troops in Armenia, and take over the South Caucasus energy corridor along which Azeri, Turkmen and, other Caspian natural gas and oil may reach European markets. By one swift military strike Russia may ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states that were its former realm, establishing a fiat accompli the West, too preoccupied with Iran, would not reverse.This seems to be fairly speculative information, and the source, Russia's Interfax, is probably questionable. Still, Putin is strengthening his hand. Iran has affiliated, by default if nothing else, with the old Soviet Union and now Russia since the Shah was deposed, and the two nations are currently strongly allied.
The report states that Russia believes American involvement in an Israeli strike against Iran is "inevitable" given the limitations of Israel's resources. The Russians expect the action to take place sometime this summer.
Some of what is said has the flavor of disinformation or of a verbal feint to forestall cooperation by nations like Azerbaijan, but we saw how the Russians boldly intervened in Georgia in 2008, so anything is possible. What is particularly disturbing about the scenario is how nicely it would play into the re-election plans of Obama while giving Putin cover to extend his control and influence in the old Soviet territories. We know from Obama's hot mike blunder that he is basically in agreement with Putin's regime and more than willing to see Russia gain power and prestige at the expense of the United States. An Iranian war could easily work to their mutual advantage politically.
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