Wednesday, December 31, 2014

What Else Happened in 2008?

Brent slated for biggest annual drop since 2008.

It sure is nice to buy regular for $1.85, which is a common price at the stations around here this last day of 2014.  Since it's been chilly and I've been busy, I haven't had my bike out, but I would guess I can get ethanol-free premium for under $2.00, too.

If I were making predictions, I would predict a stock market correction early in 2015.  Will the Dow hit 20,000 by the end of this new year?  It might, but reality says the Dow at 10,000 would make a lot more sense.

As Michael Snyder points out, this is eerily similar to what happened going into 2008.

Sadly, what we are experiencing right now is so similar to what we witnessed in 2007 and early 2008.  The stock market had been on a great run, people were flipping houses like crazy and most people were convinced that the party would never end.
On Monday, the price of oil hit a brand new five year low.  As I write this, U.S. oil is sitting at a price of $53.76 a barrel, which is nearly a 50 percent decline from the peak earlier this year.

There is only one other time in history when the price of oil has declined by more than 50 dollars a barrel in such a short time frame.  That was back in the middle of 2008, shortly before the worst stock market crash since the Great Depression.
Somewhere I hear Mary Hopkins singing:

Those were the days my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and dance forever and a day
We'd live the life we choose
We'd fight and never lose
For we were young and sure to have our way.
La la la la...
Those were the days, oh yes those were the days

I wonder if Janet Yellen knows that song?

Anyway, since I'm not going to be penalized for wrong answers, let's do a few more off-the-wall predictions:

1.  Ebola will become a news item again -- especially if the economy needs to be taken out of the headlines at some point.

2.  There will be a surge (though it probably won't be called that) of U.S. ground troops into Iraq before the end of 2015.

3.  There will be a violent, race-based riot in an American city that will make Ferguson look like summer camp.

4.  There will be, in the U.S., a Muslim terrorist attack in which more than five people will be murdered.  The terrorist(s) will be described by the regime as a "lone wolf" (or lone wolves).

5.  In September, Obama will veto a budget bill and cause a government shutdown.

6.  Chris Christie will lose 150 pounds or more (probably involving surgery) in preparation for a 2016 presidential run.  (Bonus prediction for 2016:  I won't vote for Christie at any weight.)

 7.  Elizabeth Warren becomes the 2016 Democrat front-runner.  Hillary drops out due worsening "health", and secretly checks into the Betty Ford Clinic.

8.  Russia intervenes more directly in Syria and to save Putin's ally, Assad, from Al Qaeda.

9.  In the third quarter, the U.S. economy will be declared to be in recession.

10.   (Wishful thinking) A U.S. version of the UKIP will emerge to challenge the two-party system leading to a win of at least one Senate seat in 2016. 

And very un-ironically, I want to wish you a Happy New Year!

We'll be OK.


  1. Happy new year to you too. Even if you are half right with your predictions, that's a lot to think about and prepare for. Reality, like gravity can only be denied momentarily.

  2. Happy new year to you, Mush and Brendan.

    Those are decent predictions. I've re-adjusted my views on the spread of Ebola given what has happened. I think it will remain an African problem and not go worldwide.

    As for Prediction 10? I'd like that too but I can't see that happening.

  3. Happy New Year to both of you, and thanks. Yes, #10 is fantasy.

    Gravity is like that. So far, I think what has been done is what Woody said to Buzz in Toy Story -- "That's not flying. It's falling with style." Eventually, though, the ground rushes up.

  4. Happy nuke year bro

  5. I predict the internet gets banned/censored or blown up and blamed on North Korea/China

  6. That doesn't sound far-fetched at all. Happy New Year, Jamie.