"Average" on copper is an interesting statistic. Copper was pretty high earlier this year. Right now it is slipping yet again today and is currently at $3.12. Updated to add, I was just looking at a copper chart. It was above 3.60 for January and February, as high as 3.72 or so, then most of March above 3.40 -- how low would it need to go to "average" 3.25, or how low could it go to still hit that?
- Global GDP will grow 2.5% this year.
- Central banks will lower interest rates further.
- Copper prices will average $3.25 per pound.
- The Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet by at least 30 percent.
- The Eurozone will contract by 0.5% this year.
- Japan will grow by 1% thanks to the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy.
- China will grow by over 8%.
Japan is dead in the water, but the dollar is knocking on 100 yen and hit 99.90 earlier today. I wonder if I'll be able to get a new Ninja 300 with ABS for under $4000. Those kinds of deals on bikes, electronics, and Toyotas might bump Japan up 1%. The problem is the price they are paying internally for that. I predict a big boom, like the top going off Mount Fuji.
OK, we all agreed the EZ is in trouble. Half a percent contraction looks like irrational exuberance to me, but what do I know.
Central banks will lower interest rates below zero. They will pay you to borrow money.
The Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet to cover our trillion dollar deficit, and it will not do a bit of good. The year will end with an official unemployment number above 9%. I only say this because I'm always wrong, so it will really end below 7% with a labor force participation rate of 55%. I have to hit it one way or the other, right?
China makes up their numbers anyway, so who cares.
Money is quietly moving from equities to treasuries -- rates on 10 and 30-year bonds are back down to what they were some months back. Gold and silver are reviving even as the euro slides just a little. Crude is fluctuating but seems to want to head lower.
All in all, this is a pretty modest positive spin. As they say in Boston, be prepared to "shelter in place".
China makes up their numbers anyway, so who cares.
ReplyDeleteLOL.
I read somewhere, maybe you, that copper under $3 is another death knell for the global economy.
Also, you need to check your link, looks broken.
I think Denninger said that about copper sometime back, but it's consensus thing.
ReplyDeleteThanks for telling me about the link. I think it's fixed, but it was kind of weird. It's like it's moving or something.