Monday, February 4, 2013

Coincidence, Correlation, Causation, Conspiracy

Back in January we saw two fairly well-known gun-makers killed in two days.  It seems odd, but things happen.

Now we have the murder of SEAL Sniper Chris Kyle at an event at a gun range.  Supposedly Kyle was murdered by an Iraq War veteran with PTSD issues.  It is funny they knew about the PTSD right away. 

One the great errors of modern "scientific research" is muddling correlation with causation.  A high correlation between events does not mean that one causes the other.  Trees put out new leaves in the spring.   Severe weather is likely to occur during the spring months.  Obviously leaves cause tornadoes.

For something to "happen", it must happen "in time".  There are always going to be events happening that are rather independent of one another at roughly the same point in time.  Two events can be completely unrelated -- not causing one another or sharing a common cause.  They simply coincide in time because everything has to happen some time. 

These recent deaths appear to be unfortunate and tragic coincidences.  So far, I say.  Many things we take as being related are simply common happening that are publicized because the media has become aware of a category of events that they had previously ignored.  That may well be a contributing factor here. 

Still, I find the events noted above to be disturbing.  This is especially the case with the circumstances surrounding the death of such a prominent and heroic veteran as Mr. Kyle. 

Authorities have arrested 25-year-old Eddie Ray Routh, a former Marine who police say may have been suffering from "some type of mental illness" when he allegedly killed Kyle and the SEAL's neighbor at gun range in Texas. The motive today was still unclear.

Emphasis mine.  I would, however, note that this is not the first murder of service men and women in Texas in recent years -- the Fort Hood terrorist attack was carried out by a cowardly and despicable Muslim terrorist who also happened to be a Major in the United States Army on November 5, 2009.  He murdered thirteen of his fellow soldiers methodically and in cold blood and was stopped only by a police officer with a firearm.  That goat-loving SOB's motive is also rarely made "clear".      

I do not like to deal in conspiracy theories, but I don't mind raising questions. 

3 comments:

  1. Good to know. I agree, I'll file that under coinicidence for now. But, it's filed now. Could come up for review in the old noggin if more deaths occur.

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  2. Yes, that's the way to do it. There's that old saw that says, once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; three times is enemy action.

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  3. After reading this article I have a better understanding of what legal causation means. It is not an easy subject and I am against any act of violence but hopefully we will learn from our mistakes.

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