Thursday, July 19, 2012

Recession Looms and Glooms

Via Denninger -- Signs of recessions.

Is it really for sure this time, Obi Wan?  No.  The markets are shrugging off this as well as the jump in new unemployment claims -- 386,000 this week, probably to be revised upward to 392,000 next week so next week's number can be a "decline".  I agree with the consensus on the Market Ticker that the equity markets expect more money printing from the Fed in response to the numbers.  I don't necessarily think that will happen before the election or much before the election.

Bernanke, the EU, China, the Obama Administration, Wall Street, pick whomever you want.  Nobody is really in control of this situation.  Any one of a dozen stakeholders can do something stupid to make the situation much worse.  I can't think of a single entity, outside of a handful of Tea Party-affiliated Congressmen, that might possibly even know the right thing to do.

Meanwhile, if you have not gotten all your preps done, now is the time.  I just do not believe the Fed will let the markets crash and stay down.  France is already offering negative interest on its bonds.  The Fed would be the primary buyer for U.S. Treasuries at a similar negative rate.  Crude is back over $90 a barrel last time I checked.  Keep your tanks filled and your shelves stocked.    

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