Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Playing with Matches

Iran says that closing down the Straits of Hormuz is "really easy".  Well, yeah.  However, keeping it closed could be really hard. 

This is what happens when your enemies perceive you as weak, vacillating, and indecisive.  Bin Laden's much publicized, though undocumented, demise did nothing to change the perception of Obama as an incompetent dilettante in the eyes of the world.  His "asking" Iran to return our downed drone hasn't helped much either.

Unfortunately for the world and the Iranians, an attempted shutdown of the Gulf could well result in a catastrophic chain reaction.  It is stupid little sparks like this that ignite powder kegs, ending in rivers of blood and destruction. 

Are the Iranians stupid enough to try to close down oil shipments?  Some people suspect they are, and it is edging oil prices higher at a time of the year when they typically recede.  This may not be the spark, but it is exactly the kind of spark that should remind us of how close to the abyss we are playing.  Instability in North Korea or Pakistan, economic uncertainty in China, posturing by Iran, the collapse of the euro, or some other local calamity could trigger a global chain of events that, once it starts, is unstoppable. 

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