Friday, July 8, 2011

The Audacity of Bogosity

Let this be a lesson to us, friends: Put not your faith in ADP employment numbers. Essentially, ADP can make up numbers. If I were into conspiracy theories, I would suggest that someone used those bogus numbers to set up the stock market yesterday then cashed out.

What does it all mean? For one thing, it means a sell-off of the market gains from the last week or so.

Secondly, it means that commodity prices may again escalate – oil, gold, wheat, coffee, etc. – not on the basis of increased demand but as a “safe-haven” speculative bid.

Third, keep in mind that QE2, also known as Cutting the Value of the Dollar in Half Rides Again, ended with the fiscal year on June 30. If the market shows signs of collapse, Bernanke is going to devalue the dollar some more and let the Chinese see who will buy all the U.S. paper they are holding.

I said about a month ago when the Dow dipped below 12,000 that we were walking on the rotting edge of the precipice. We haven’t moved. Get out in the next few days and punch up your reserves a little – canned food, ammo, paper towels, toilet paper, duct tape, epoxy, batteries – nothing overboard, just the usual stuff you use everyday or would use if the store shelves were suddenly empty. Silver is still probably overpriced, but it has been fairly stable. It might not be a bad time to pick up a few ounces of old silver coins. Again, I urge caution when it comes buying metals. There is no need to dive off the high board when we're not sure it's on the deep end. Save your nickels. We are not yet at the point of collapse, and we may yet be spared from the worst of it.

The one shining hope – seriously – is that Congress will NOT reach an agreement to raise the debt limit. We are in the hole. Stop digging!

This is something easy to do if you are an American: contact your Congressman and Senators. Just send a simple email with "RE: DO NOT RAISE THE DEBT LIMIT (or else)" as the top line. Make a couple of nice comments. Tell them you do not want your great- or great-great grandchildren born owing a million trillion just so some SEIU member who produces nothing of value can have a cushy job and an inflated pension. Or words to that effect.

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