Why the Swan is Black

Oil.  Andrew Butter on Seeking Alpha explains the Oil Price Black Swan. 

Butter's writing is less than clear, but the point is that there is currently no good place for money from oil sales to go.  This is particularly true with the biggest consumer of oil, our own United States.  Today the 10-year Treasury is around 2.15%, just not enough return for someone selling a valuable commodity for dollars that are rapidly declining in value.

The problem is DEBT, not big business, not corporate greed, no, it is puree-old Big Government Debt.  Ryan's budget does not do much, but at least it is a budget and at least it goes in the right direction.  Of course, any budget will die in the Senate anyway, and Obama would veto Ryan's if it did pass.  Hence, I can conclude that no one will step up and fix that actual problem which is millions of Americans continuing to live beyond their means with the enabling of the federal government and the Federal Reserve.

Just once, I wish we would encounter an alien menace that wasn't immune to bullets -- The Brigadier (Dr. Who)

I'm not sure about Black Swans. 

Devils in Disguise

The lead bullet thing is coming up again.

John Richardson re-posts about a couple of bogus organizations that claim to be for hunters and gun owners but undermine our rights.

The attitude toward lead bullets is ridiculous, but the more general point is how many times the collectivists attempt to dilute opinions and confuse voters by setting up organizations like Project Gutpile or the American Hunters and Shooters Association or some other "sportsman's group" to fund ad time for their leftist candidates.  The AHSA, which I think is now gone under, may have been the group that ran a copious number of radio spots supporting Claire McCaskill back in 2006 which enabled her to stay within the margin in the rural areas and win the election. 

Just for the record, without this odious piece of crap in office, we would not have Obamacare at all.

The left must always disguise its intent.  It cannot openly and publicly state that it is for ever greater central government control of our lives.  Only in off-guard moments do we get the "bitter clingers" statements.  Most of the time, they hide their true agenda behind a smokescreen of propaganda and carefully chosen names.

In fairness, some of that happens on both sides. 
 
And no wonder, for even Satan disguises himself as an angel of light.  So it is no surprise if his servants, also, disguise themselves as servants of righteousness. Their end will correspond to their deeds.  (2 Corinthians 11:14-15)

I'm the kind of man wouldn't harm a mouse
But if I catch somebody breakin' in my house
I got a twelve-gauge shotgun a'waitin' on the other side.
Now don't go pushin' me against my will
I don't wanna have to fight ya but I darn shore will
If you don't want trouble then you better just pass me on by

-- "Simple Man", Charlie Daniels.

Lessons in Lessening

I don’t know too much about the George Zimmerman-Trayvon Martin incident.  The straightforward language of the police report written at the time indicates that Zimmerman was physically injured with a bloody gash on the back of his head, a bloody nose, and the back of his jacket wet and grass-stained.  Zimmerman also told the police at the time -- as stated in the report – that he, Zimmerman, was calling for help, and no one came to his assistance. 

I question the media portrayal of Martin as a child.  Possibly he was, at the time of his death, a skinny, little kid who looked more like thirteen than seventeen.  Possibly, though, older pictures are deliberately being used to garner additional sympathy.  A black seventeen-year-old who physically attacks another man, punches him in the face, knocks him to the ground and gets on top of him does not sound too sympathetic, especially if the young man looks more like an adult.

It is also clear that we are probably not going to get much honest reporting on this case, as the political manipulators seek to gain an advantage.  Expect the faces of Trayvon Martin and Barack Obama to morph seamlessly into one another as the election draws ever nearer.  To vote against Obama will be to pull the trigger on Trayvon. 

But, what I am about here is prudence.  It is a good thing to have neighborhood watch programs.  It is a good thing to be on the alert for the suspicious and out-of-place.   Zimmerman was not being “racist” by taking notice of and calling the police with regard to a person whose face was obscured by a hoodie and who did not appear to be a resident of the neighborhood.  In fact, Zimmerman was doing exactly, at that point, what neighborhood watchers are supposed to do.  The idea is to let those casing a neighborhood know they have been observed.  Had the police arrived a little sooner and contacted Martin, he would be alive today.   If Martin had chosen to ignore Zimmerman following him rather than confront him, he would be alive today. 

Nevertheless, in my estimation, Zimmerman did make an imprudent decision to leave his car and follow Martin on foot.  First, Martin was doing nothing obviously illegal.  He was merely walking along the street.  That he had his hood pulled up is suspicious but not against the law.  Martin was not apparently trespassing or seeking to gain entry to any houses.  He was not carrying anything stolen as far as Zimmerman could tell.   The right approach, at that point, would have been to let the police handle the situation.  Most likely, they would have passed through the neighborhood long after Trayvon Martin was gone, but that would have been acceptable.  Someone intent on burglary or other criminal activity would have still possibly been hanging around.  The innocent would not be loitering. 

Another point is to always have a sort of worst-case response in mind.  I doubt that Zimmerman thought there would be any confrontation, or he thought it would take a markedly different flavor.  He did not expect Martin to turn on him and begin questioning his actions.  If you can’t think fast and improvise in an encounter, try your best to stay out of situations where you might have to.  I can almost guarantee that if I had been in Zimmerman’s shoes, there would have been no fight and no shooting.  I would have done my best to turn the whole thing into a joke.  The inability to find humor in a situation once again proves fatal. 

Always try to stay loose and be open to adjusting to the dynamics of the circumstances.  We should not allow ourselves to be pushed into a response or course of action unnecessarily.  They call it a “chain of events” for a reason:  it can be broken.  All one of the parties has to do is step back and take a different tone.  In many ways, the Martin/Zimmerman case is a tragic accident, and it could have been avoided.  Sadly the solution to such tragedies has little or nothing to do with the racial elements which are being emphasized, and everything to do with the tunnel vision that comes with the natural, human flight-or-fight instincts.  This is especially true of young males – Zimmerman is only 28.  The right kind of training will help us overcome that instinctive response. 

Any kind of formal training with the right kind of stresses is good.  Anyone who has been through military or law-enforcement camps and courses learns to deal with stress and the physical responses it elicits in a positive way.  Outside of that, merely thinking through scenarios and mentally envisioning the maintenance of a calm demeanor can be helpful.  As prudent individuals we need to work at overcoming instinctive reactions that lock us into a chain of increasingly negative results while developing new “instincts” that will help us spiral in a positive direction.  

• Refuse to “tense up” in uncomfortable situations.
• Keep your vision wide and relaxed rather than narrow and focused.
• Take a deep breath, a step back, count to ten, whatever mental anchor point allows you to return to a more relaxed, though alert state.
• Keep all your options, including retreating, apologizing, using humor, etc., open as long as possible.
• Be aware that you may be seen as a threat to someone you consider a potential threat, and do your best to defuse that perception.
• Be aware that a person may be angry for no reason related to you personally.  Do not allow an angry retort or answer to create anger or fear in you.
• Do not interfere unnecessarily with people who are causing no immediate or objectively observable harm.  Most of the time such people are indeed harmless, though possibly seeking attention and entertainment.

*******************************************************************************

To update this slightly, several reports seem to indicate that Zimmerman says he was on his way back to his vehicle when he was attacked from behind and knocked to the ground by Martin who then got on top of him and began to pummel his face.  Thus, if that does turn out to be the case, I would not have been able to avoid a fight had I been in Zimmerman's shoes.  And, if that was the case, it was a matter of pure self-defense and a completely justifiable homicide.  The only apparent contradiction to Zimmerman's story, which is consistent with the observations of the police, would be the cell phone conversation between Martin and his girlfriend as related by the girlfriend.  

Also, in fairness, I should note that Trayvon was about 6 feet tall and weighed around 160 pounds -- a skinny kid.  His recent pictures are roughly comparable with his pictures as displayed by the media, except for the prominent gold teeth and tattoos.  Martin was on a suspension from school though the cause appears to be unclear.  

Finally, the media keeps repeating the adjective "unarmed".  Unarmed does not mean without the power to do harm.  I am not a particularly large person.  Nevertheless, I always figured that, in a confined area, I could kill about 75 percent of the people I meet bare-handed.  The percentage has no doubt gone down as I have gotten old and slow, but the point remains.  Humans are born with lethal weapons.  All guns or other tools do is make us all a little more equal.   
 

More Accommodating

Here we see a Dow and S&P rally.  The world must be roses and unicorns again. 

Maybe.  Bernanke says that "...continued accommodative monetary policy will be needed to make further progress..." relative to the unemployment numbers.  What that means in plain ol' Murikan is that the Fed will try to encourage more consumer debt. 

Here is Denninger's take on that. 

The Fed position weakens the dollar against the increasingly weak euro.  (Anybody notice that Greek politicians were in hiding during "celebrations" over the weekend?  The celebrations turned into protests.)  This will drive up commodities, most noticeably crude oil.  Metals are rising this morning as well.  Coffee is going up again.  I can stop or cut back driving, but they take away my coffee and somebody's going to pay. 

Let the Games Begin

Imagine a game somewhat like "Risk" or some other game of strategy and luck played on a very large scale with lots of players.  Most players, the vast majority, control only a piece or two.  A very few players control large portions of the playing area and an overwhelming number of the pieces, often by proxy with allied members of the group of small players.  So long as the large players act cooperatively, they can keep the game going.  It is possible to communicate and collude away from the playing area.  By joining forces the larger players can overcome a rogue.  The more pieces a player has, the more that player is seen as "winning", but this is an odd game, for none of the players — especially the larger ones — want the game to stop.  Some will "win" — that is, gain pieces, one day.  Another day, a different player or group will "win". 

The Game

Right now, the world financial system seems to be "in play".  By buying gold, central banks or governments or investment banks can drive up the price.  By selling it, they can lower the price.  The same is true of bonds, of equities, of commodities, and of the currencies themselves.  As long as all the players kind of wink at one another, the game goes on with back-and-forth maneuvers and moves in various markets.  None of the markets these days can truly be said to be "free", but there is a degree of freedom, especially in the West.  Individual Americans as a whole still control quite a bit of the board.  The Islamic states like Iran are pure rogues and liable to cause significant and unpredictable disruptions.  China and probably Russia are also suspect.  The bigger players, especially the governments and the central banks, think they are more or less in control, but they have been shaken and are continuing to be unsteady, as they have been since the curtain was drawn back in 2008.  Greece is not such a critical issue in itself but rather in terms of the manipulation and redefinition that it revealed.   Everyone is starting to understand that something is not right within the system. 

No organization can control a market of any size any more than someone can control the weather.  This is especially true given the proliferation of information available to the average "player".  Understand that I am not talking about a vast conspiracy.  The trouble with conspiracy theorists is that they do not realize just how complex the systems are.  But groups, individuals, and organizations can accommodate one another to some extent and establish an implicit system where everyone may not do as well as they could but they are doing well enough and better than if some of the other parties adopted other strategies.  The key to establishing this kind of cooperative strategy is communication.  Those seeking to maintain the stability of the far-reaching global market have long relied upon authority figures to in various fields to encourage the populace to follow a particular path.  This part of the system appears to be breaking down.

In the global markets, the bigger players are attempting to continue something like a Nash equilibrium.  However, there are factors that threaten this.  In an equilibrium situation, it is sometimes the case that the first player who breaks from the implicitly agreed upon strategy and makes a different choice "wins" in a big way.  Most often others respond to a rogue element by adopting a strategy to counter it.  It some cases, this results in a new equilibrium or a return to the old state.  Given the systemic inertia and uncontrollable factors in the real world, it can also result in a catastrophic collapse. 

The reason that most of us have been "wrong" so far about the global economic collapse is that the major players have a lot of resources they can shift.  Like a plate-spinner, they can give attention to the wobbliest plate, going from propping up the euro to the Dow to bonds to precious metals to crude to the dollar.  The whole thing is crashing down, but it is doing so in a spiral.  It is true that each move makes less and less difference off the bottom, but it still keeps things from falling immediately to the ground.  That's the plan, anyway.  It might have worked — and probably did at other times.  Now, however, there is the internet.  If you wonder why governments would like to put controls on internet content, realize that it is less about political discourse than it is about the nakedness of the various economic emperors.  Government debt is now the bubble, and it is completely unsustainable. 

Sure, there are still plenty of sheep locked into "Dancing with the Stars" or "Downton Abbey" who have no idea of and no interest in what is going on as long as they have their bread and beer and circuses.  But there are also more and more people waking up to what is really going on, seeing the massive debts for the threat they are, and refusing to listen to the "authorities".  In the long run, this is good. 

Tools You Can Use

I have been doing some of the necessary Spring labor around the place, such as straightening up my blackberry supports and turning the 'tater bed.  A few tools come in handy, and it is hard to think of a good substitute for them.

Fencing pliers are a actually a multitool of sorts, incorporating a hammer face, a staple-puller, wire-cutter, and pliers.  For some reason, we always referred to fencing pliers as "granny pliers".  I think, though, it started out as "Grandma's pliers" because they had belonged to my grandmother.  I have more than one pair of fencing pliers because I like to keep one set with my tool belt that I use when I'm working on a fence.  Another set, I use for everything.  The hammer face makes a pretty decent little light hammer.  I wouldn't want to frame a house with it, but, for most everyday applications, it works well.

If you have ever seen a wire that has been spliced or connected to a post where the bight end of the wire is wrapped in a neat, tight spiral, it was probably done with fencing pliers.  No. 12 smooth wire will slide right through the top gap in the pliers' head and almost wrap itself in coils. 

That brings me to another tool that I don't have pictured:  wire.  You can buy rolls of 12-gauge or 9-gauge wire at most farm supply stores.  This stuff has endless uses.  I am guessing that the newer stuff comes from China or some place because it is a little more susceptible to rust and corrosion than what I remember from my sadly misspent youth.  Still, it is relatively cheap and more durable than duct tape.  Most of the tool hooks in my pegboard are made from an S-shaped piece of #12.  That most famous of improvisational devices, baling wire, is probably about 14-gauge — I don't have any to examine at the moment — a little lighter than #12.  You can manipulate 12-gauge with your bare hands up to a point.  You can make it look a lot neater with a pair of pliers, though.  If you are going to do much with #9, you'll likely need a little leverage.  Number 9 is thicker and stronger, but not, in my experience, as generally and universally useful.  I keep a roll around, but it lasts a lot longer than the #12 roll. 

I use this wire as part of the bracing for corner posts on a fence line.  After putting in the horizontal or diagonal component between the main upright post and the upright brace,  I wrap two or three or four strands angling from the top of the brace to the bottom of the main, using a couple of staples on each post for guides.  After I tie it together, I put a stick, a piece of broken steel post, or a piece of rebar about a foot-and-a-half long inside the loop near the bottom and crank it down tight.  This helps hold the horizontal (or diagonal) brace in place as well as keeping the upright brace from giving to the tension in the fence over time.  It really turns the braces and the main post into a single unit of superior strength. 

Another thing I use a lot is a small sledge.  Mine is blacksmith hammer, for no particular reason except it is what I have.  A drilling hammer of sufficient weight would work just as well, or a sledge for that matter.  I used to use a little sledge I had picked up — probably at a garage sale.  Whoever had put in the handle had done a really ugly job on it, and I always meant to get a new handle and fix it right, but I never did.  It's still in the barn in original condition, more or less.  It's too heavy to swing accurately and safely with one hand for a long time -- after a while I tend to get wobbly.  The drilling hammer I have is a little too light for some applications.  The blacksmith's hammer is just right.  I don't know what the head weight is, more that two pounds, I think, maybe three.  I use a star-drill for breaking through the rocks around here, and the smith works great for that.  It will also do a passable job of driving a steel post unless the ground is particularly hard and/or rocky.  It will drive a cold chisel, beat something stubborn into place, or beat it out of place, and that pointed end will shore'nuff knock welding slag like it's supposed to.

Pictured:  Sore's Hammer.


Next is the come-a-long.  What are these things actually called?  Is it a winch?  Wench?  Whatever.  If you don't have one, find one and buy it.  You may not have any idea what you will use it for at the moment, but take the time to figure out how the little catches work, how to release it and all that.  At some point, you will be doing something that is all but impossible, and it will suddenly occur to you that you have a come-a-long, and your life will improve 100%.  Trust me.

You thought I was joking about wench?  Don't you see the "come hither" look?

I have a couple or three picks.  Pictured is a baby pick.  I bought this, and my wife said, "What are you going to do with that thing?"  I use it all the time around her flower beds and borders.  She loves these decorative concrete borders and stepping stones and stuff like that.  Between seasonal freezing and thawing and her reckless zero-turn mowing, things are always getting knocked loose, knocked down, and knocked out of place.  The little pick works great for getting things back in order.  She wants bulbs planted, I use the pick.  She wants cabbage or tomato plants put out in the garden, I use the pick.  I use it to knock rocks out of the tiller tines.  I use it as a light pry bar.  Turned sideways, it will drive on the lid to a paint can or beat the top of a bucket of transmission fluid back into place.  It gives me a little extra reach.  It will roll a rock or log over without getting my fingers in the way of a lurking copperhead.  I hook it through the mesh at the bottom of a couple of cattle panels to make them easier to carry.  It's just handy for all kinds of things.  Not everybody will find the baby pick as helpful as I do; however, everyone should have a good, full-size pick with a heavy, forged head.  You don't use them as much, but nothing else works quite as well when you do need one.

Take your pick.

A spading fork is another tool of limited but essential use.  If you need to turn ground by hand, you probably need a spading fork.  They are also handy for digging potatoes, hence the hillbilly designation of "'tater fork".  What the spading fork lacks relative to the fineness and reach of that more traditional implement of the peasantry, the pitchfork, it makes up for in brute strength.  A D-handled spading fork can get through hard ground like nothing short of a spring-tooth new-ground plow.  They are wicked and they will break your back.

The pain radiates from the picture.  You know you want one.

Protect your eyes.  Too many years of working in the sun and around CRTs probably caused an early onset of cataracts for me.  I've had them fixed so I'm bionic, but I need these baby blues.  I don't think I would ever get Eli's trick of echolocation down.

Your future is bright.  Wear shades.

This is the way we wash our clothes ...

... and buy our meth, so early in the morning. 

Here's Ferfal talking about it.

And the guys from The Circle Bastiat conclude: 

Dealers need to wash clothes, but they don’t do enough laundry to carry that much detergent for their own personal use.  Tide’s marketability allows the dealers to sell bottles to local stores and other businesses.

It’s clear that dealers and their clients understand what money is, whereas Ben Bernanke and his troops at the Fed do not.   Even addicts know they can’t print their own paper money and expect dealers to trade their goods for worthless script.

Dealers demand that in exchange for their drug inventory, customers provide a tangible good in trade.   Meanwhile, the Fed injects more debauched money from the ether into an economy now addicted to cheap money.

Those crazy Austrians!  They are a laugh a minute.  I'm sure Paul Krugman has plenty of Tide.

Tide:  the new bread.  We'll have to change a few songs. 

Ain't too many problems that cain't be fixed
With a trunk full of Tide and a 30'06.