What Will Happen in the Zimmerman Trial

I have been thinking about this a lot.  There are parallels to the Simpson trial and to the Rodney King situation.

In this case there are two factors that tend to skew opinions.  One is race.  As most will recall, Simpson was viewed as guilty by whites and innocent by the majority of blacks.  The fact that this was the first high-profile case involving DNA may have had something to do with it, but the pivot on which opinions turned was Mark Fuhrman, the detective who put the case together.  He had been documented as using racial slurs.  When this was brought to the public's attention, black people immediately concluded that Fuhrman had decided to frame Simpson.  White people, missing the emotional charge of the slurs, continued to look objectively at the evidence.  We did not see that uttering a racial epithet would motivate Fuhrman to try to pin a murder on a "hero" by manufacturing evidence.

I was certain that given the overwhelming physical evidence in the Simpson case, he would be convicted of murder.  As we waited for the news to announce the verdict, I voiced that opinion to a wiser friend who shook his head with disgust and said, "No way.  He will walk."  Juries, like dice, can be loaded.  

Similarly, Trayvon Martin's phrase "creepy ass cracker", as quoted by the prosecution's witness Rachel Jeantel, is seen by many black people as being cultural rather than something racially-charged.  We, white or black, should not allow a bit of teenage trash-talking or bravado to lessen our objectivity.  Rachel Jeantel's credibility isn't a function of her culture, her lack of education, her limited communication skills, or her race.  That does not change the fact that she is not really a witness to the events as they took place.  Even if she is telling the truth, her timeline conflicts with the idea that Zimmerman ran Martin down and initiated the attack.  She cannot give evidence of something about which she has no knowledge. 

The second factor that divides opinion is the media involvement.  Those who are following the streaming video of the trial have one view; those following the media coverage of the trial may well have a different view.  I think many who are following the media coverage both of the incident when it was brought to the fore last year and of the current trial could easily conclude that Zimmerman is guilty.  Those who have looked at the evidence in more detail are likelier to have doubts.   

The media has, from the first, insisted on showing pictures of Trayvon Martin as a smiling twelve-year-old thereby distorting the narrative of what took place the night of Martin's unfortunate death.  There is something of a parallel to the Rodney King case where a video of part of an arrest was run constantly on television.  It showed Los Angeles police officers beating King with batons after he was on the ground.  I have no sympathy for the LAPD, but late Rodney King had been drinking and was driving at high speed, fleeing from CHP officers prior to the stop.  He was on probation for armed robbery and refused to comply with the officers' request to be handcuffed.  He had managed to stay on his feet and continued to resist arrest despite being Tasered twice.  None of that was mentioned much, he was just "motorist Rodney King", the innocent victim of police racism and brutality.  While the charges of excessive force may have been merited, subduing a larger, stronger, belligerent individual without hurting him is difficult.

I suspect there is a good chance there will be another parallel to the King case if George Zimmerman is acquitted.  People are already threatening violence against Zimmerman or against white people in general if the accused is not convicted.  The acquittal of the LA police officers by a Simi Valley jury on charges stemming from the King incident was an excuse for widespread rioting.  In addition, those police officers were brought up on federal charges of violating King's civil rights.  Two of the four officers so charged were convicted and jailed.

I have every confidence that should the jury somehow manage to acquit Zimmerman, Obama will set the White House carpet on fire getting to a microphone where he will read from the teleprompter and say, "I am deeply disappointed by the decision of the jury in the George Zimmerman case to ignore the clear evidence presented by the State of Florida in the tragic and senseless murder of a young man with so much potential in life.  Though the murderer may have managed to escape the consequences of his actions as it relates to state criminal charges, this failure of justice cannot be allowed to stand.  Therefore I have instructed Attorney General Eric Holder to immediately pursue charges relating to the violation of Trayvon Martin's civil rights as he was gunned down after being racially profiled.  My administration will not rest until George Zimmerman is brought to justice for this act of racism and cold-blooded murder."

Again, I have serious doubts that Zimmerman will be acquitted, though I think a conviction would stand a very good chance of being overturned on appeal.  Meanwhile Zimmerman's hopes for any kind of normal existence have been thoroughly dashed, and his life will be in danger if he is set free.