The Next Big Election -- Updated via Barnhardt

It actually happens during April and May before our November contest, and it is in France.  Carla Bruni's husband is not looking so good.  At this point, it appears likely that Sarkozy loses to the socialist Francois Hollande.  The reason that is a big deal for Americans is that Hollande has vowed to renegotiate the arrangements with Germany and the EU.  Hollande believes that too much austerity is being imposed and wants more borrowing and spending -- just like our very own intellectually inbred leftist maroons. 

Despite my many hours of college French, I am no expert in these matters.  However, the dominant view seems to be that if French bond rates bounce up, you move from the PIIGS to the F'n'PIIGS.  With Sarkozy's very minimal restraint gone, the euro will be all but dead and the EU all but destroyed.  The talk in Germany will turn from bailing out the PIIGS to simply bailing out.

Update:

In her "Red Alert:  Credit Default Swaps Explained", Ms. Barnhardt explains why the coming Greek haircut could be a big deal.  And that is very interesting, but so is the entire AP article she links via Breitbart.  At the risk of disagreeing with a woman who is much smarter than I am (nothing new, I've been married for forty years), I think she could be right about the coming collapse for the wrong reason.  It may not be the CDSs that kill us, but the demand for more haircuts.

France, Germany, and the EU have not fixed anything, even if they manage to keep Greece afloat in some way.  If Greece can write off 70% of its debt, what about Portugal?  What about Italy?  Ireland?  And Spain?  What happens when one of the other PIIGS says, We want the same deal as Greece?

Greece is the little piggy.  The ECB and the IMF with a little help from the Fed and China can rock the Grecian Formula cover-up.  But it won't stop there.  The yield on Portugal's bonds was in the teens yesterday.  They can't pay that indefinitely.  They will fall further in the hole just trying to cover the interest.  How long before they start screaming for a haircut?  And where does it end?